Annual 2008 Predictions

Since this is the start of my second year as a blogmeister, I revisited my 2007 predictions and was amazed. Nearly everything didn't happen. Just like a weather forecast. I'm going to ignore what I said previously and just focus on the future, the next forecast. Why go back. You can't change it. So I was wrong. So here goes:

Video Games
Microsoft will do what they normally do...rip off, reinvent and dominate. The next hot interactive video game called Thee, will feature belly dancing, Yoga, line dancing and skydiving. We all want to spend even more time indoors in front of a TV so we can avoid the interactive thing we used to call exercise and socializing.

Apple
Okay, I did predict this...kinda. Apple is now doing what analysts said they should be doing since the Mac IIe. Be a consumer electronics company. Expect more and more cool devices from Jobs and Co. that will continue to surprise their competition and delight the market. The iPhone will go on sale to match the Blackberry by March, with its next release.

Facebook
Goes public in Q3 and starts aggregating successful vertical social networks that have suddenly become relevant. CPM rates, on a weighted basis, are now $15 because beacon isn't needed.

Brinker International, Outback Restaurants and Darden Restaurants
These huge restaurant companies that invented casual dining start selling their concepts like crazy. Valuations will average less than 6X trailing company-level EBITDA. Casual dining is dead. Long live casual dining.

Boutique Wine
The tail will start wagging this big dog. Small, independent wineries will start consolidating and creating efficient distribution machines that will force the big, bad ass liquor distributors to rethink, retool and reassess their value add...and futures.

Detroit
More bad decisions from stodgy, head-in-the-sand leadership will force deep discounts as Toyota continues its march to own the car world. Small is better. Remember the 70's?

Venture Capitalists
They all meet in Bali for a conference and decide to focus on funding high school students that are mentored by serial 20-something EIR's. Here comes 3.0.

To be continued...

The Funded

I have been following The Funded blog for a number of months now. At first, I thought it was an amusing little web site. Like a Yelp just for VC's. The whole notion of making a generic web site a vertical is compelling, for more than one reason. But is this niche VC bitch site really serving its community? Does it help? Is it relevant? Does anyone care?

I classify The Funded entrepreneurs in two camps:

• Camp 1: Serial, successful with a track record.
• Camp 2: Not so much.

Camp 1 is generally forgiving and kissing ass because they are looking forward to another financing and want to make nice.

Camp 2 are pissed off because they want what Camp 1 has (had or is going to soon have).

So, what up with VC's? Well, I classify them too:

Camp 1: Tier 1 don't care. They have enough deal flow and believe that nothing original ever comes from noobs. VC's have their network and are used to being hated.

Camp 2: The rest of the VC's haven't had better than a 10% IRR anyway and are always sucking up to Tier 1 for crumbs. They don't care either. They are happy being 6th on the deal team.

So, what's the point of The Funded? You tell me.