44 is a good number

I've always loved the number 44. It just seems, well, neat, tidy, organized, balanced and just. Google 44 and you get a list of blogs about 44. In numerology, many experts believe that master numbers are just 11, 22, and 33, not 44. I disagree. The number 4 is generally associated with work, and practicality. Two 4s equal 8, and 8 in Numerology is a good advanced representation of no. 4 - leadership, ambition, material success.

Master numbers include double digit numbers 11,22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, and 99. They are called Master Numbers because there is inherent masterful, or extraordinary promise symbolized by them. This energy is far from mundane and instead largely other-dimensional.

Here are a few fun facts I pick up surfing around.

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The Number 44 Prime Factors of 44=2x2x11. 44 is an Octahedral Number. 44 is an Truncated Octahedral Number. 44 can be Partitioned 63261 ways. 44 can be Partitioned 23 times with each term no larger than 2. 44 can be Partitioned 184 times with each term no larger than 3. 44 can be Partitioned 816 times with each term no larger than 4. 44 is the number of derangements of 5 items. The maximal number of regions into which a plane can be divided by 7 circles=44 The Chemical Element Ruthenium has an atomic number of 44. Edgar Cayce's "44 Laws of Spiritual Development". Film: 44 Minutes: The North Hollywood Shoot-Out. Well, maybe it's me, but I still just think its a nice, neat, balance sequence and I am just trying to find a cool way to say I hope Mr. 44th hits a home run...ASAP.

Growing a Business from a Seed

Growing a Business from absolutely nothing but a web address, is a very hard thing to do. I appreciate the efforts of entrepreneurs and their willingness to put themselves at risk and share a dream that in many cases, is not shared or seen by others. The odds of success are astronomical. Even the odds of receiving a steady paycheck are higher than anyone would believe. Being able to dream, conceive, give birth, stay focused, paint pictures with words and sell something that is a promise is an art.

Having said this, I am amazed how fast and how strong FohBoh has become in such a short period of time. I am proud of the website, our level of success, my partners and team. They dare to be great and believe in the dream and share our risk every day.

Entrepreneurs that dream and accept risk are a special breed. It's also what helps make America great. It's here I feel compelled to say "support your local entrepreneur" because s/he might just change the world.

Visiting our Nations Capital

Really, this was a fun trip. Dining, walking, dining, walking...did I mention walking!

Tip #1: Do not wear new shoes
Tip #2: Do dine at Citronelle, fab!
Tip #3: If you dine at Citronelle, bring a lot of cash!!
Tip #4: Visit the Mall and as much of the Smithsonian as you can handle.
Tip #5: Bring two outfits per day; and
Tip #6: Visit in the fall

Awesome vacation at any age.

Intuit and Microsoft

So what's with Intuit making it incredibly inconvenient and nearly impossible to use QuickBooks online? It's IE or nothing. I almost want to make it nothing and find another solution. I use Firefox because IE sucks.

Any thoughts here?

The Flake List

I'm sure no one has the temerity to actually create a list for posting the names and offenses of flakes, but I would applaud loudly if some one would.

Here’s the deal. We all know who they are, what they did and why it irritated us soooo much, that you want to tell everyone you know about that asshole that ….
Here are a list of offenses that we all can relate to:

• Someone sets up a luncheon and doesn’t show
• A conference call is scheduled and you are the only one listening to the music
• Someone says they will help you move your furniture on move day…nope, you’re all alone
• You assemble an advisory board for your start up…and no one advises you
• You ask your attorney to help introduce you to investors. Instead, they send you a $662.00 bill for “Monitoring Trademark Matters”…and you don’t have a trademark
• A simple desire to have coffee with a friend turns into a month long reschedule affair…and you give up
• You score two extra tickets to the hockey game and call five sets of friends and no one returns your call. You go, and try to sell them at the gate…no takers.
• Dinner is prepared and planned for 7 PM, dinner guests show up at 8 Pm

So, I Googled Flake and didn’t come up with much. So, I added Out, as in Flake Out. I found:

1. To fall asleep or collapse from fatigue or exhaustion.
2. To act in an odd or eccentric manner.
3. To lose interest or nerve.

Only the Urban Dictionary got it right:

flaked

• to decide to "bail" or leave at the last minute
• dude he totally flaked
• he flaked out on us

I know a ton of flakes and so do you. I would love to post my list of flakes on www.flake.com. if someone would have the temerity to start that list.

Annual 2008 Predictions

Since this is the start of my second year as a blogmeister, I revisited my 2007 predictions and was amazed. Nearly everything didn't happen. Just like a weather forecast. I'm going to ignore what I said previously and just focus on the future, the next forecast. Why go back. You can't change it. So I was wrong. So here goes:

Video Games
Microsoft will do what they normally do...rip off, reinvent and dominate. The next hot interactive video game called Thee, will feature belly dancing, Yoga, line dancing and skydiving. We all want to spend even more time indoors in front of a TV so we can avoid the interactive thing we used to call exercise and socializing.

Apple
Okay, I did predict this...kinda. Apple is now doing what analysts said they should be doing since the Mac IIe. Be a consumer electronics company. Expect more and more cool devices from Jobs and Co. that will continue to surprise their competition and delight the market. The iPhone will go on sale to match the Blackberry by March, with its next release.

Facebook
Goes public in Q3 and starts aggregating successful vertical social networks that have suddenly become relevant. CPM rates, on a weighted basis, are now $15 because beacon isn't needed.

Brinker International, Outback Restaurants and Darden Restaurants
These huge restaurant companies that invented casual dining start selling their concepts like crazy. Valuations will average less than 6X trailing company-level EBITDA. Casual dining is dead. Long live casual dining.

Boutique Wine
The tail will start wagging this big dog. Small, independent wineries will start consolidating and creating efficient distribution machines that will force the big, bad ass liquor distributors to rethink, retool and reassess their value add...and futures.

Detroit
More bad decisions from stodgy, head-in-the-sand leadership will force deep discounts as Toyota continues its march to own the car world. Small is better. Remember the 70's?

Venture Capitalists
They all meet in Bali for a conference and decide to focus on funding high school students that are mentored by serial 20-something EIR's. Here comes 3.0.

To be continued...

The Next Big Thing

The interesting thing about this blog is that it's like Seinfeld...it's about nothing really. Whatever is on my mind I can post. The power of publishing. A lot of blogs cut and paste from other blogs and then comment. Others borrow from YouTube (I've even done this a few times) to add punch and some cool rich media. So after a year, and dozens and dozens of postings on a variety of topics (original mid you), I feel like I am getting closer to becoming more of a specialist blogger.

So here's my short list:
#1. Bitch about how cruel the venture capital industry is an how cruel the venture process is was considered. But, that whole industry is screwed up enough with many, many venting sites. I have a lot of experience and have a lot to say about this and even have a prediction. Perhaps a few more generic blogs will occur before I transition to a SBFC (specialist blogger first class), but the teaser blog has a name...Googdaq the new market for Web 2.0 companies.

#2. The new record industry. Boy, I have great access to a lot of insiders and even invested in a start up digital media company. This is still a possibility.

#3. Restaurants. I love this industry but no one in the restaurant industry reads, so probably not a good blog concept.

#4. Becoming 50. That's an on-trend topic with a lot of curious potential readers. I have a lot of ideas, since I'm 50 and all. Things like dealing with aging parents, adult children, feeling like you're old, dealing with aches, pains, stiffness, poor eyesight, sense of confusion on career, looking for a new career, a job, feeling lonely, retirement, money, etc. Lot's of issues, lot's of information.

#5. Life lessons geared to the 18-25 year olds demographic. They are so dumb about everything except how to communicate on multiple levels using two thumbs. They can't balance a check book, cook dinner or clean a house...I could go on, and on and on...perhaps this is why this could be a good blog, blah, blah, blah. Maybe parents will visit my life lessons blog and get tips on how to related and educate and maybe kids will too. Maybe we can send the blog via SMS so they'll get it, read it and pass it on. Maybe...

I have four or five others on the short list, but these are the top 5. Well, the other is about nothing, like my current blog. Just random thoughts, original prose on things that matter to me at the moment. What do you think? What's your recommendation, 1,2,3,4,5 or give me an idea.

The Restaurant Addiction

I love this business, I love the industry, the people working in the business, the food, beverage and creativity. I have since I started working as a busser in Hawaii when I was 22. But I left it and pursued another career. Then in that career, specialized in the restaurant industry. Then, left that career and developed some restaurants, worked with some world- class operators, celebrities, celebrity chefs and some goofballs too. Well, that's it, my 30 year career in a paragraph.

Here's what I love about business. There is something called The Great Equalizer out there. It's a mysterious force. You can't see it. Can't buy it and in many cases, you really don't know about it until after it's become part of your life. It balances over-thinking and over-tinkering and really amazes me, particularly in the restaurant industry. Why? Here's why...

Business case #1: Smart, savvy, restaurant executive, WTF, from a public company leaves with fully vested stock options worth $5 million and intends to start a restaurant company.

In any event, he does this very entrepreneurial thing and spends months sourcing real estate, orders demographic studies, conducts focus groups, hires a consultant to write the business plan, generate a financial model and design a restaurant concept. WTF then invests $1.5 million of his own capital and $1.0 million from a landlord and opens his first independent restaurant. No corporate services to support, no national purchase contracts, no net. WTF works like a dog, calls all his former operator employees for advice and at the end of the year, has put in another $350,000, borrowed another $150,000 and is still barely at breakeven. Ugh.

Business case #2: Goofball, a former flea market vendor travels to Cabo San Lucas on vacation and sees a small restaurant and bar near the ocean with lines out the door. Goofball plants himself on a bar stool and drinks beers, eats food, talks with the bartender, customers and the hostess. Goes back to the hotel room, gets his laptop out and builds a spread on what this little shack was doing in revenue. Wow, says Goofball! I could do this, he says.

The next day, he takes a camera and completes his due diligence, including stealing a menu. Back to the states he goes. Six months later, Goofball is raising money from friends and family, hocking his condo and sets his sites on leasing a shack; and I mean a shack near the water in Laguna Beach. Burgers and beers to start...and the lines are out the door.

WTF did all the right things, and for the most part, so did Goofball. They just approached the market and built a business case differently. The Great Equalizer is a force to be embraced because start ups succeed and fail for any number of reasons. How many times have you said or heard, "man, they are successful in spite of themselves". Next time, remember they are successful because of the great force called The Equalizer.

Stormy Weather

It's been nearly two years since Katrina changed so many lives, challenged our government and strained our economy. Let's hope we are ready this year and have learned something.

I remember Katrina each year because without any doubt, it changed my personal view on how quickly things can change, no matter who you are. Because no matter who you are, or how careful you consider each decision you make, each time, every day, in the end, it may not matter. Because control is governed by nature. Control is a myth. You have no control over what happens in your body or what happens when a Hurricane comes to town with a bead on your home.

I spent two weeks in 2005 building a "Mash-type" restaurant and cooking for thousands of strangers where water surged over 30 feet, leaving boats in trees and houses blocks away from their foundations. I met and fed soldiers, ministers, mechanics, doctors, volunteers, police, firemen, the homeless, even FEMA. All were thankful for a hot meal on a devistated corner, where we had the only light shining. We were the new town center at Pass Christian, Miss for a bit, where friends and family would meet, check fingers and toes and rediscover the true meaning of grace.

I am truly grateful for this way-out-of-my-comfort-zone experience that I was volunteered for. It really is my personal thanksgiving day...because I remember how much a Cheeseburger with bacon meant to so many, how grateful they were to have it and how awfully good it felt to be there, doing that, for them.

Katrina changed my view of control, of loss and what matters most. If you have the opportunity to help others during a crisis, selflessly, you will never be the same person after...I guarantee it.

Volunteer

Bitch Slapping Rude

According to the Urban Dictionary, bitch slap is putting someone in their place (or diss) in no uncertain terms. I want to whack rude out of our society and help make courtesy and manners more mainstream.

This post is about that...bitch slapping rude. The first step is being able to identify it, write about it and talk about it. Then, we may be able to recognize it and prevent it from occurring.

Object lesson
Coming home from a rock concert last night at about midnight there was a huge crowd of people jockeying for position as we exited the parking lot. While most of the drivers were lining up, a few ill-mannered folks were trying to cheat and cut in line to save 20 seconds. Horns were honking and generally, the high from the cool summer concert was lost by a few ill-mannered, rude drivers disrespecting others. Come on, get in line, relax and be courteous.

So, what's your experience?

While:
> Driving
> Shopping
> Working
> On an airplane
> Giving a presentation
> Having dinner
> ??

On Being Flakey

What is about some people that allow them to live in their own reality? We all know them, have met them, been employed by them or have read about them. Lindsay Lohan comes to mind! I’m really talking about other, less famous, but equally frustrating people like small business owners that want to sell their business. Here's an example. I am advising a client on a proposed acquisition of a chain of restaurants huddled in one major market in the U.S. The owners want to sell...we think, but are driving me crazy

Here is a list of flakey infractions:

• Ignoring phone calls
  
• Ignoring voice mails
• Ignoring emails
• Ignoring SMS
• Not knowing how to send or receive an SMS
• Faxing documents when using email is preferred
• Forgetting about scheduled conference calls
• Scheduling meetings then ignoring calls to confirm
• Leaving a voice message without any message
• Being rude and inconsiderate
• Never sending relevant financial data
• Not having relevant financial data
• Not having any financial data
• Not having any data
  

Seems like they are not really interested in selling are they!

I have to tell you, sourcing a deal and raising money for an acquisition is cake compared with dealing with unsophisticated sellers of businesses. So, here's my hack of the day, if you are a small business owner and have decided to sell your company, hire a consultant to manage the process so you can stay focused on running your business. M&A is hard enough when you know what you are doing. If you have any stories, please share!

Google is Big Brother!

Okay, one sure way to piss me off is to block my email first thing in the morning on Monday after a holiday for no reason. What the hell is a Sector 6? The following a what I received after I was blocked and had to fill out a form.

Hello,

Thanks for your report. We apologize for any confusion or inconvenience.
For your security, we may temporarily disable access to your account if
our system detects abnormal usage. It will take between one minute and 24
hours for you to regain access, depending on the behavior our system
detected.

Abnormal usage includes, but is not limited to:

- Receiving, deleting, or popping out large amounts of mail (via POP) in a
short period of time
- Sending a large number of undeliverable messages (messages that bounce
back)
- Using third party file-sharing or storing software, or software that
automatically logs in to your account and that is not supported by Gmail
- Multiple instances of your Gmail account opened
- Browser-related issues. Please note that if you find your browser
continually reloading while attempting to access your inbox, it is likely
a browser issue, and it may be necessary to clear your browser's cache and
cookies.

If you feel that access should not have been disabled, please visit
https://mail.google.com/support/bin/answer.py?answer=53897 for
troubleshooting tips.

Sincerely,

The Google Team

Okay Google Team, here's my Sector 6...Bye Bye for good. I am back to Yahoo!, remember Yahoo!, they are the company that is worth $100 billion less than Google...for no good reason!

So, after a while Google let's me receive email, then I get this error?






And, then this bullshit explaination...

Reality Bites

I guess I just don't get it. I love independent music and have high regard for independent musicians but I can't stand American Idol. It's painful. Paula has to be drunk but is in denial about it. Simon is rude and socially unacceptable…albeit accurate most of the time and Randy, well, he just wants to fit in.

The songs they select are dated and lately all sound like a commercial for Michael Jackson…remember him? The contestants are as rough as they can be. Is this some weird attempt to show a before and after photo of how Idol can make barely talented common folk rock stars?

Host Brian is surprisingly, normal this year. He tends to comfort the verbally and emotionally whipped wannabe stars and asks nearly closed-ended and simple questions after each performance. This reality bites.

Focus and execute

Whatever happened to being able to focus and execute? Being focused requires one to not multi-task. Focusing means putting what you are working on at the center of your attention. Once you have focused on this one thing…then execute. Simple?

No. Life doesn’t work that way. Not today. Not with Blackberries and Apples. Not with cell phones and PDAs. Not with laptops and email. Not at our pace and not in this century.

Are we fundamentally better off now than we were 20 years ago? I wonder. Technology is shaping our lives and I wonder if I really like where we’re headed. Yes, I do have more freedom and flextime…to work longer hours. I sometimes feel captured by the attention my gadgets require. I can’t hide. But, I don’t have to be in the office either. Good trade off?

So, I did an experiment. After catching myself talking on the cell phone and sending an email with my Blackberry…while driving from Reno to San Francisco, I said this has to stop. I canceled my T-Mobile service and my Blackberry. I did miss it. But, my business hasn’t evaporated and I did survive, and not just a potential car crash!

I think we should pace ourselves a bit more, leave the cell phone and Blackberry in the car once in a while, and try to focus and execute a little more too.

Greedy Bastards

Exxon! Unbelievable! Sickening! Greedy! Bastards! Incredible! Amazing! Did I say greedy!

Thirty-nine billion dollars and change is what Exxon make in 2006. That's $39,000,000,000. Of course it's a record...beat 2005 handily. Something has to change and I am not talking about saving a few cents per gallon. I'll gladly give that up if we can focus on the ball. The big blue ball called Earth! When is congress going to go to work? I've totally given up on Bush, so has the 70% of American and 99% of the world. But, really, we have to leave something for the kids don't we?

We have debt and we have global warming to leave them. I could go on but it's depressing.

Focus people! Global warming is not a concept it's a fact and we are screwing up the environment. We need some help here with our elected officials. What is about Washington D.C.? As soon as our freshmen congressmen and women take office they forget who they represent. I thought we were in charge here.

Going green is intelligent, mandatory and critical to our survival. The environment better be a big part of the forthcoming campaign in 2008. If any candidate accepts money from Exxon, s/he will lose my vote. Greedy Bastards!

Please take a few minutes and write your representative.

Just click here...hey, it could work!: Please protect the environment.

Apple, Inc.

I love Apple. I love their attitude; I love their passion, their quality, their fruity colors, their zeal and their founders' genius and arrogance. Steve Jobs, what a piece of work. Let's review; Apple, Pixar, iPod...iPhone, what's Next! :-) and the balls to launch a product that is already owned by over 2 billion people. Like we need another cell phone. However, genius is fun to watch and who else could do this…P.T. Barnum? The iPhone is brilliant and iCannot wait to have one.

I went to high school with Steve. Okay one wish… I wish I had been nicer to Steve and stayed late in electronics class and became friends with him and Woz. Who knows, maybe I could have been an early employee at Apple. Employee 99, that, would have been cool. But no, I had to do the water polo thing for the girls and anyway, I had zero interest in technology...boring!

We all make mistakes. We all make decisions that we can't reverse and, at one time on another wished we could go back to a certain date for a do-over. I have few of those. One in particular is related to stock options and how fast they go up...and down! But that’s a long story.

Making good decisions and learning from that; accepting responsibility and being accountable for whatever may result is a key life success factor. That's maturity. Wishing is like making hope a strategy, dumb! Wishing is a waste of time. I wish I could get a date. I wish I had a better job. I wish I had more money. I wish George Bush would make a good decision. Stop wishing and start doing. Take some action…it’s 100% up to you.

Dreaming is a good idea though. It helps bring clarity to what you want and visualizing is absolutely the right thing to do. However, hoping for a result that favors you or anyone else is a waste of time. Instead, take action, make good, thoughtful decisions and live with the outcome...good or bad. You will make good decisions. You will also make bad decisions that affect your life for years...deal with it. Learn from it and make better decisions and, never look back because you cannot change anything, only learn and grow from it.

Making decisions carefully does not mean be indecisive. A decision not to make a decision is a decision… not to make a decision...really! You can’t help but make decisions, even if you’re a procrastinator.

Apple, Inc. made a decision 2 1/2 years ago to make an Apple phone. They denied it, distracted all of us, avoided announcements and put huge penalties on anyone that leaked. But here we are, with the Apple iPhone ready to sell beginning in June. They still don't have ownership of the name... not that owning the brand name before a big marketing push is important. Only Apple and Steve Jobs would make that decision. I do find the decision to announce a name change interesting though. Apple, Inc. just told the world that computers will be just part of their product mix in the future...not their only product. I for one welcome the new Apple, Inc. as a consumer products company melding technology with digital media. Walt Disney, Henry Ford, meet Steve Jobs.

Thanks Steve…I wish we could have been friends ;)

Turning 40

No, not me...been there, done that.

Turning 40 is indeed a right of passage. Forty is 10 more than 30, 10 less than 50. Kinda like a teenager of middle age.

Generally at forty, you are not anywhere near where you expected to be...geographically, financially, physically, mentally, spiritually or creatively. It's a time to reflect…gez, how pedantic. No, really, it is a good time to take a moment. It’s a good time to think about who you are, who your friends are and re-evaluate what you stand for. It’s a good time to count your blessings and be grateful for what you have, not wallow what you don’t have. It’s a good time to defend your position and assess your first 40. Set new goals, make new friends, and purge that database of meaningless relationships in favor of your new social and business network. Create a profile on MySpace and Linkedin...could be fun! Commit to taking better care of your body, your mind and your spirit and start eating better. Exercise more, read more and drink more red wine. Call your parents more and send a real card through the mail once in a while, and not just at Christmas. People really like that.

I dreaded my 40th. I didn’t get my Porsche. I survived. My wife is turning 40, she doesn’t want a Porsche…imagine that! Kim’s cool though. She looks 30 but is 40. She’s a breath of fresh air. She’s honest, kind to strangers, healthy, happy, and isn't afraid to tell people what she thinks. Happy birthday sweetie, enjoy the next 40.

Sky Diving Over New Zealand

Yup, I'd rather be doing that than this. Moving! After several years of enjoying the "lifestyle" in the Reno-Lake Tahoe region, my wife and I are relocating back to San Francisco for work related reasons. We've decided to keep the house in some weird attempt to stay connected to the area, but truth be told...I'm glad to be back. Back where there is action and energy. I love the mountains and the spirit of the mountain men and women...hardy, appreciative, genunine and huggy. But, I miss the traffic, the long hours, the deals, the congestion. How sick is that? Well....I also miss the restaurants, the intelligence, the creativity and the money. Fine, I admit it, I miss the money and the deals. Did I say I missed the reataurants? Having worked in NYC and San Francisco, I may be more of a city person than I thought. But the move.

Time to purge the junk that comes with owning a large home. How many CRT monitors does one really need to have in the garage? The bigger the home...the more stuff you have. The smaller the home, fewer things are needed. I like that. Small, simple, less stuff. This makes sense. So, there is good to come from this. But the planning and logistical nightmare that comes with moving and purging isn't enjoyable. The fact is, moving sucks. So, that's why I would rather be skydiving over NZ than preparing to move. Stay tuned...

Looking forward to 2007

Just this morning I was looking out to a snowy yard and relished its clean, white virgin qualities. When the air is crisp and there is fresh snow on the ground, there is no better time to reflect on the past and plan for the future.

I believe 2007 will be an interesting year for politics, the environment and for business.

Politically, we can't keep discussing the same topics without making progress, particularly as we move into an election year in 2008. Immigration; the Middle East; terrorism, the climate and energy crisis' and the economy, all will begin to see a bit of progress with reasonable solutions beginning in 2007. Demo's will no doubt help this effort.

Environmentally, I see big investment in green technologies. It seems that a lot of wealthy private investors are looking at fueling new businesses that promise to innovate, create and solve big problems. VC's tend to bandwagon and in this case, it may be a good thing. But, I hope the VC's that do invest in this industry take a long term view. It will be like investing in a drug discovery company with a ton of regulation.

Business in 2007 will be opportunistic and I see the IPO market opening up again. Two things are driving this; (1) a lot of capital has been invested in young companies over the past few years, so it's time to monetize. Initial Public Offerings will provide the exit needed to return capital to the institutions that provide the capital in the first place; and (2) Financial markets always have and always will be run by fear and greed. VC's are greedy. But, have they really learned from their past mistakes in rushing young companies to the capital markets? This time, however, it may be good for the founders, the investors and the markets. We'll see.

So, here is my top 10 for 2007:

1. Social networking will begin to mature and go vertical. This will be terrific for the consumer as they splinter off to networks that are meaningful to them. Social marketplaces will emerge and go global providing micro-businesses and independent artists with a unique opportunity to build brands online very quickly.

2. Digital media will be the big growth vehicle as all things digital begin to converge. Billions will be invested in 2007 as fragmented markets begin to consolidate providing exits to all of the start-ups founded years before. New leadership will begin to appear and new consumer brands will emerge as portals for independent digital publishing, digital media and consumers too.

3. The music industry will finally start to wake up and embrace the forces of change. This will be terrific for independent artists but it will still take a few more years before radio, music, fans, clubs and distribution are all in sync again. This is a major shift of power in a $75 billion world-wide industry...good things do take time. There will be a few newly formed companies possessing superior business models that offer fresh perspectves that in fact, may be positioned to lead the new digital media industry.

4. Google should have a stock split because that is the only thing that will move the stock again and start attracting fresh employees. Google will also look to form a media company because at the of the day, they don't really believe that user generated content is the future like Yahoo does. This will be an interesting year for Google as they try to remain agile like a start up with the burden of operating like a Microsoft. Many Google employees are now fully vested and will jump ship to take a short break then start new companies. VC’s will back them just because they have Google on their resume. Big mistake. Remember 1996? VC’s should look to support consolidations not continue to frag the market with me-too companies.

5. Fine dining will lead the restaurant industry in year over year comp sales as casual dining finally fills up. It's been years in the making, but we now have too many casual restaurants operating in the States and sales will begin to naturally fall off. Too many seats, not enough customers and boring menus will help manifest this. Quick casual is still hot, but innovation will need to occur before there is too much excitement in this sector. Hotels continue to offer celebrity chefs low risk start up deals and in exchange, drive consumer traffic to the hotels and resorts. Many chefs will start mini chains of their proven upscale concepts and others will begin making simple foods great. This may be the theme over the next several years. So who does make the worlds best hamburger and French fry?

6. Retail and restaurant buy-side multiples are way off their high but sellers are still dreaming of a big pay off. There is also a glut of 30 year old brands looking for buyers and they will have an extremely difficulty time selling. Tired, old, boring restaurant concepts with average or below average unit economics does not an attractive opportunity make. I see more acquisitions fewer mergers and private equity starting to back management teams not just financial statements and hot concepts. So, where are the all star 50-something chain restaurant operators?

7. Back to work. I see people working all of the time. While driving, walking their dogs, sitting in airports and in restaurants, waiting for lights to turn green and on chair lifts...imagine? Blackberry, BlackJack, Palm, Pearl, you name it, we want any gadget that will connect us. Then, there is the natural convergence of sight and sound, the iPod phone? and the Chocolate. Warm fuzzy devices that connect us to our music, our people, our calendars, our contacts and our Internet anytime, anywhere. This place-shifting concept will change how we work and where we live if, companies trust employees to perform. So, I predict a new type of wage scale tied to quantifable performance and results. Historically, only sales personnel had a commissionable performance package. However, some smart HR manager will invent a novel way to pay non-sales employees so the employers get what they need and employees have flexibility and freedom...using their PDA's to connect...anywhere and any time...perhaps all the time!

8. In 2007, the handheld will begin to dominate all technology sectors. Content providers want access to over 1 billion terminals and consumers want to have access to that content and connectivity.

The ability of connect to the Internet is absolutely the killer opportunity over the next 10 years. Imagine having all of your documents stored online somewhere such that they are always with you. Imagine then not requiring anything more than a PDA device with you. You would not need to travel with a lap top. Some smart PC manufacturer will invent a simple $100 device and sell them to hotels by the thousands and to kiosk vending machine operators that rent them by the hour at Starbucks, airports, train stations and schools. No drive required, not really even storage. Online word and spreadsheet programs offered free by Google eleminate the need for Microsoft products. One USB port for a jump drive and an Internet connection and you are working. All you would need is a cellular connection at the least and a broadband connect at best. To call, to write, to access documents, make presentations, listen to music, buy and sell on ebay and research anything anytime anywhere will be the next big thing. The office will shrink to small cubes and conference rooms with digital video teleconferencing when you don’t want to hold an international video conference at the park. Our Occupational Place-Shifting (OOPS), it's happening now.

9. The SUV will begin its slow inexorable march toward its death as the 25-40 year old consumer starts to control auto purchasing. Gas prices will probably never dip below $2.00 a gallon and we have an energy crisis. The consumer knows this and smart consumers have already connected the dots. Oil is the bane of our current existence and is "fueling" climate, economic, terror, war and social crisis' because they are all connected. We need a solution and it will take billions, probably trillions to invent and support a new energy industry. So, we better start now.

10. Health and wellness will become the fastest growth industry when it embraces technology. The reality is that "boomers" are in their 60's, want to live forever and still control 99% of the wealth. You know the saying "if you don't have your health, you really don't have anything at all".

Read a book by Tony O'Donnell called Miracle Super Foods that Heal. This book makes the answer obvious. You are what you eat and we have been eating very well for years.

By combining the passion we as consumers have for gadgets, connectivity and technology with our need to live longer healthier lives, we will see this industry start to dominate all others within the next 5 years. We now drink Xango to relieve pain, seek out antioxidants and spas, rid our bodies of harmful toxins that were not around when our bodies were invented, (means that your liver and kidneys alone will not do the trick in this century) and we look for less fat and to eliminate transfat completely from our diet. We are finally seeing diets that actually work because nutritional programs have been formulated organically to work with our bodies at the molecular level and with our individual personalities to succeed. Isagenix and others like them, will become leaders in a $500 billion industry within the next 5 years. I believe these new age, alternative, nutritionally-savvy comanies have the answer to better nutrition, better health, and the byproduct is living longer and weight loss.

So, Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukah! Make 2007 a great year for you, your family and your business. There is no time like the present to start fresh with renewed passion...enjoy the snow.